Brazil Declares Prediction Markets Illegal and Blocks 28 Platforms

Brazil's National Monetary Council (CMN) issued Resolution No. 5,298 on 24 April 2026, formally declaring prediction market contracts tied to sports, political, cultural, and other non-economic events illegal under Brazilian law. Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced the decision at a press conference in Brasília the same day. Brazil's telecommunications regulator, Anatel, moved immediately and has already blocked 28 prediction market platforms at the domain level.

The action is one of the most decisive government moves against prediction markets seen anywhere in the world so far in 2026.

What CMN Resolution 5,298 Actually Prohibits

The CMN resolution is specific about which event contract categories fall outside the bounds of permissible financial derivatives in Brazil. The prohibited categories are:

Contracts based on the outcomes of sporting events, virtual gaming events, political and electoral events, social events, cultural events, entertainment events, or any other events the CMN classifies as "random" or non-economic.

The government's framing is consistent with what regulators in other jurisdictions have argued: these contracts are bets on outcomes, not financial instruments with an economic basis. By issuing this resolution, the CMN has removed the regulatory grey area that prediction market operators relied on in Brazil. The platforms cannot operate under financial services licensing when their products have been specifically excluded from that framework.

Which Platforms Have Been Blocked

Kalshi and Polymarket are the most prominent names in the 28-platform blocking list. Both had announced or implied plans for Brazilian expansion, and both had been publicly arguing that their CFTC registration in the United States provided a template for how to operate globally as regulated financial products rather than gambling operators.

Anatel has been instructed to continue identifying and blocking new platforms that attempt to fill the gap. The government's statement made clear that the prohibition is not limited to the initial 28 names.

Why Brazil Acted Now

Brazil's regulated sports betting and online gaming framework only came into force in January 2025. The government spent 2025 dealing with the unintended consequences of a gambling boom, including concerns about household debt and problem gambling among low-income groups. Prediction market platforms grew rapidly alongside the regulated betting sector, and the government's position is that they were expanding outside any controlled framework.

Durigan described the platforms as offering "bets disguised as derivatives." The distinction matters legally because financial derivatives fall under the CMN's remit and can be licensed, while gambling falls under separate legislation. By classifying prediction market event contracts as gambling products and excluding them from derivatives permissions, Brazil has closed the loophole the platforms were using.

What This Means for Players Using These Platforms

Players in Brazil who were using Kalshi, Polymarket, or any of the other 28 blocked platforms will find them inaccessible as of 24 April 2026. The government has not outlined any mechanism for withdrawing funds held on those platforms, which creates immediate practical concerns for anyone with outstanding positions or balances.

The broader pattern is worth noting. Brazil is not acting in isolation. In the same week, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed lawsuits against five prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket on the same legal theory: that sports event contracts are functionally identical to sports bets and fall under state gambling law. Nevada regulators have also taken action against Kalshi. The question of whether federal commodity registration or financial licensing can shield prediction market operators from gambling law is now being tested simultaneously in multiple jurisdictions.

For players in the US and Canada who want clear legal standing, top online casinos and licensed sportsbooks operating under state or provincial frameworks remain the regulated alternative. The legal picture for prediction markets is in active litigation across at least three jurisdictions and counting.

Brazil's move is notable for its speed. Where other regulators have filed lawsuits and waited for court rulings, the CMN issued a binding resolution and Anatel began blocking the same day. That execution model is likely to be studied by regulators elsewhere.

Sources: iGaming Business, Bloomberg, Crowdfund Insider, Cryptopolitan, Live Bitcoin News